Tuesday, August 14, 2007

i'm tired of losing and splits

i've got to get a break some time. i never tracked the percentage of the way bets were going till last year and i think last season in MLB, if you took a team with 75% or more of the public siding with you, you would have only won, like, 51-52%, and taking in to consideration most of time when the public sides that heavy, the team is probably a heavy fave. so you would have actually lost. i don't have my binder with me right now to look it up. the reason i bring this up is because i've had some bad beats the last month, and teams that looked good on paper, faltered. i'm sure its just my conspiracy theorist nature, but i've lost quite a few games recently that the public were with me(or i was with them) 75% or better. i think i'm going to have to go through my records and see. anyway, another split last night, for -20, heres tonights predictions and plays, no short write-ups today , i don't have time.

NYM(O.Hernandez) vs. Pitt(I.Snell)
play NYM -140*
un 8.5
Phil(K.Loshe) vs. Wash(S.Hill)
Phil -120
un 9.5
Ari(B.Kim) vs. Flor(D.Willis)
Flor -130
S.F.(S.Atchinson) vs. ATL(J.Smoltz)
Atchinson 3-2 2.01era 51-8 k/bb in 53.7inn at AAA Fresno
ATL -240
ov 8.5
play RL -1.5 -120*
STL(K.Wells) vs. Mil(C.Capuano)
STL +120
un 9.5
Cinn(A.Harang) vs. CHC(C.Zambrano)
Cinn +130
ov 8
Col(J.Francis) vs. S.D.(G.Maddux)
S.D. -120
play ov 7.5*
Hou(M.Albers) vs. LAD(B.Tomko)
LAD -140
un 8.5
T.B.(S.Kazmir) vs .Bos(J.Lester)
play T.B. +120*
play un 10*
Det(J.Bonderman) vs. Cle(C.Sabathia)
Cle -150
ov 9
Bal(D,Cabrera) vs. NYY(J.Karstens)
NYY -180
un 10.5
LAA(J.Saunders) vs. Tor(R.Halladay)
LAA +140
play un 8.5*
K.C.(K.Davies) vs. Tex(K.Millwood)
Tex -140
ov 10
Minn(M.Garza) vs. Sea(H.Ramirez)
Sea -120
un 9
CHW(J.Garland) vs. Oak(L.DiNardo)
play Oak -120*
ov 8.5
7 plays* tonight, good luck to me.
Conn vs. Wash
Wash +2
ov 153.5
Hou vs. Det
Det -6
ov 151.5
N.Y. vs. Chi
Chi -2.5
ov 144.5
Minn vs. Sea
Sea -9
ov 165
S.A. vs. L.A.
play S.A. -4.5*
ov 146.5
just 1 play*, i like the lean on the over in Conn/Wash game.

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