Tuesday, August 7, 2007

yesterday wasn't bad

turned a small profit yesterday, i went 4-2 in MLB for +190, texas made a good effort after coming back from 6 down to start the first, but couldn't pull it out in extra innings. I know i've mentioned this in past posts, but i do handicapp all these games i predict and the games i personally play. I just don't have the time usually to give a short write-up and mainly because i'm just doing this for myself basically, I don't think no one reads this but me. since were mainly in baseball season right now(well were getting to football), i'll just give an idea of how i handicapp baseball(i give all other sports the same in-depth look). i start off printing out the schedule for the day's games, i look and see what pitchers are left handed and right handed, then i look at past performance against who they're facing, then i check and see if they've faced that team this year already and if it was at home or on the road, then i check who they were matched up against in that game and if any key players were absent on either team. i check and see how they've have preformed recently and wether it was at home or on the road and the strength of the teams they faced. i look at the batting averages of each team vs. left-handed or right-handed pitching and how they have fared lately and if any key players are injured or have just came back. i check out runs given up in the past vs. teams and recent runs given up. i check bullpen matchups, whos pitched alot lately and might not be available if needed today, theres a few other filters i throw in there also. now i know some cappers put stock into whos behind the plate and what ballpark their playing in. i haven't found much difference in umps calls, i know some cappers will say this ump or that ump has a tighter strike zone or one calls more strikes than another. if you actually follow it, some umps just happen to be behind the plate when quality pitchers are up or the pitchers are more fastball, slider,sinker throwers, some umps happen to be behind the plate for curveball and breaking-ball or change-up throwers who rely more on painting the corners. as for ballparks, yes you would think the hometown crowd does give a slight edge or helps out a little, but some cappers take into effect the size or distance of the field and what team has more power hitters. the shorter the field, easier for the long-ball, or some have short rightfields and if a team has some left-handed power hitters they might hit more homers. some even take into effect the foul territory, the theory is if you have less room in the foul area, a power hitter who fouls one off, especially a pop-up, it will go out of play and he has more chances to put one in play or hit it out. all of that is too much info for me, i try and keep it fairly simple, i already put to much thought into this, sometimes to much. when you lose after doing so much research sometimes you think it would be better flipping a coin, but it does pay off in the long haul, it's a slow and steady grind.

well heres todays predictions and plays with a short write-up about each.


Flo(R.VandenHurk) vs. Phil(J.Moyer)

Moyer is 5-0 in his career vs. Flo., 1-0 this year, 7inn. of 2hit 0 run ball

Phil -160

ATL(B.Carlyle) vs. NYM(O.Perez)
Perez has faced ATL 3 times this year all early in the season
@ATL 7inn 5h 1r
vs. ATL 6.2 inn 9h 2r
@ATL 7 inn 4h 0 r
on the flip side Carlyle has went 4-1 L5 games, only given up runs of 2,4,3,1, and 3
Mets are at home and ATL struggles against lefties
play NYM -150*

LAD(M.Hendrickson) vs. Cinn(B.Arroyo)or(A.Harang)
really doesn't matter whos pitching for the Reds, they struggle against lefties
especially Griffey and Dunn
play LAD pk -110*

CHC(S.Marshall) vs. Hou(W.Williams)
Marshall was rocked his last game he pitched, his last win was @Cincy on july 28 and before that it was on june 24 @CHW, both those teams suck against lefties, Houston doesn't
Williams has faced the Cubbies twice this season, lost one game 1-2, he only gave up 2 runs

he got a no-decision in the other and only gave up 2 runs

Hou hitting .276 vs. lefties, Cubs hitting .276 vs. righties

Hou is at home, Soriano is out for the Cubs, and Dempster hasn't been impressive since coming off the DL

Hou even +100


S.D.(J.Peavy) vs. STL(A.Reyes)

Peavy's last game @STL 7 inn 3h 0 runs 10k's 2bb

S.D. is only hitting .239 on the year vs. righties and STL hits .276 at home, it comes down to starting pitching, Reyes sucks, and the Padre's bullpen is better

S.D. -160


Mil(C.Capuano) vs. Col(J.Hirsh)

Capuano last game vs. Col 3inn 6h 5r

Hirsh 2-0 career vs. Mil
Mil. hitting .258 on the road
Col. hitting .278 vs. lefties and overall .293 at home on the year

play Col -120*

Pitt(P.Maholm) or (T.Gorzelanny) vs. Ari(M.Owings)
on may 19th Gorzelanny and Owings faced each other at Pitt with Zona winning and neither pitcher getting the decision.
Gorzelanny went 6inn 7h 2r
Owings went 2.2inn 6h 7r
Pitt is hitting .250 vs. righties and .266 as a team on the road
Ari is only hitting .238 vs. lefties , but Ari finds ways to win
Gorzelanny is coming off shoulder trouble, some of Pitt's key batters are banged up
Zona's bullpen is solid
Ari -130

Wash(M.Bacsik) vs. S.F.(B.Zito)

Bacsik is 0-1 in his career vs. S.F. in his only game against them he went 5.1inn 9h 3r

but he has won 3 straight games
Zito is 0-1 vs. Wash. and since june 15 he's 2-4 with 3 no-dec's and he pitched an inning of relief the other night in a extra innings loss to San Diego
Wash is hitting .270 vs. lefties, S.F. only .241
Wash +130
play un8.5
Sea(J.Weaver) vs. Bal(S.Trachsel)
Weaver has lost 4 straught games and is 3-4 in career vs. Bal
Trachsel is 0-4 in his career vs. Sea, but that was in 2000 when he split time with T.B. and Tor
Sea hasn't played well on the road this year
Bal pk -110
T.B.(J.Hammel) vs. Det(N.Robertson)
Hammel started the year as a reliever, he's started his last 3 , and went 2 no-dec's and 1 loss while giving up only 2,2, and 2 runs against good hitting teams Tor,Bos,and NYY
Robertson has lost 3 straight
if the Rays can build a lead early, maybe their shaky pen can hold
Det might have a few key players out, and their pen has been shaky
T.B. +160
NYY(R.Clemens) vs. Tor(J.Towers)
Clemens last game at home vs. Tor ,6inn 9h 1r
Towers 2-8 vs. NYY, last game @NYY 5.2inn 9h 6r
A-Rod has the monkey off his back now, and the whole Yankees team is swinging good
NYY -160
Minn(B.Bonser) vs. K.C.(B.Bannister)
Bonser and Bannister just faced off on Aug 1, both got a no-dec
before that game Bannister had won 2 straight giving up 0 and 1 run
Minn just came off a series against Cle where they scored a total of 6 runs
K.C. just got swept by the Yankees
go with the team hungry for a win
K.C. pk -110
Cle(J.Westbrook) vs. CHW(J.Danks)
Westbrook may have looked good his last time out, but last game @home against CHW,6in 7h 4r
Janks last game against Cle wasn't much better 5.2in 8h 5r, but the Sox won
CHW have won 4 straight
CHW +110
Oak(C.Gaudin) vs. Tex(K.Gabbard)
Gaudin's last game against Tex @ home, 6inn 8h 5r, 1-3 career vs. Tex
Gabbard 0-1 in career vs. Oak, hasn't faced them this year, has held teams to 3 runs or less in 5 of last 6 games, look for Tex to get revenge
play Tex pk -110*
play un 10*
Bos(T.Wakefeild) vs. LAA(J.Saunders)
Wakefield may be 8-2 since june 12, and won @ home against LAA back on april 13, threw 7inn 5h 1r ball for a 10-1 Bos win, but he's only 9-10 in his career against the Halo's
Saunders has faced Bos only once in his career and it wasn't this year, he's 5-0 and has 3 no-decisions, has gave up 3 runs or less in all starts except one, he gave up 4 runs.
the big difference here is hitting, Bos is .262 on the road, while LAA is .311 at home
play LAA -120*
6 plays going tonight , good luck to me.
Sac vs. Conn
play Conn -4.5*
Wash vs. S.A.
play S.A. -5*
play ov 148*
Ind vs. Chi
Chi -3
N.Y. vs. Hou
N.Y. +4.5
Pho vs. L.A.
play Pho -3.5*
4 plays* lined up in womens hoops

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